Research, analysis, strategies
Is it possible to earn on hyps, trusting the opinions of other people, or do you need to select projects yourself? What is the preferred entry and exit strategy for a beginner and experienced investor? When is reinvest worth doing? And, in general, can anyone be trusted in the hype industry? I will answer these and other questions in this article.
But I would not want to chew on the theory, to give unsubstantiated arguments and to be unfounded, so all my thoughts and advice will flow from concrete examples. To do this, I even did a little research on the hype industry over the past few months. So in writing this article I was helped by mathematics, logic, analysis and common sense.
Fears of investors
Initially, I started a study in order to determine which of the investors ’fears is worse: enter a new project under a scam or be among the last.
A new project from a beginner or scammer.
This is the fear that the new project will not pass even one circle. But why does an early scam happen? Firstly, the admin may be a beginner who simply does not know how to properly develop a project. Secondly, the administrator may be more interested in his personal gain than the income of investors. Often a project is specially created for scam, but it happens that the admin suspends work at the very first difficulties.
The fact is that such projects are very difficult to calculate. And certainly it is beyond the reach of a beginner. Even experienced investors fall for the tricks of scammers and over and over again record losses.
Be among the last.
As practice shows, any hype closes sooner or later. Not every project passes the first round, but the statistics of the second round are even worse. Therefore, if the admin went through the first round and gave people money, he gave a deposit and proved that he was not a scam, then those who entered after the first circle have a very tangible risk of being among those who will not make a profit.
That is, the question can be formulated as follows: “What is statistically more profitable: it’s bolder to go into new projects or wait until the admin proves that he is not a scam and go into an already promoted project?”
Below you will find all the necessary data that will help clarify this issue.
In order for you to be able to understand how this industry is generally structured, below I will give several investment strategies and tell you what people use them.
Only top projects
This strategy can be briefly described as follows: they are included in large sums into those projects that have been working for a long time, are well known to everyone and which have already given investors good money.
People here are divided into 2 types. The first ones are experienced investors who have been observing the project from the very start, understand that the admin is ideological, see that the project has growth potential and enter in such a way that they are sure to be safe from the fast-track. They are very afraid of the very first fear that the admin will be a scam. This approach is quite effective, but is suitable, first of all, for experienced investors.
But most of the followers of this strategy are beginners who see the top-end project, see that people in it have already earned quite good money, show high confidence in hype and invest large sums.
The fact is that they do not really understand the rules of hype investing. They are used to the fact that in real business, the longer the company works, the more it gives advertisements, the more clients and offices it has, the more you can trust it. They do not understand that everything is a little different in HYIPs.
If there were no scammers and all admins were ideological and experienced, then there would be a clear tendency that the later an investor comes into any project, the less chance he has of making money.
The main mistake of the newcomers is that they do not observe the hype and do not understand what stage it is currently at. They just see a project that works, for example, a year, they see that it pays and has made good money. In their opinion, it can be entered into a large amount, and they simply cannot recognize the approaching scam.
No matter how cynical it may sound, this state of affairs suits all market players: admins, referrals, experienced investors. The fact is, such investors very harmoniously fit into the project development strategy.
- First stage. The administrator does not need large investments so that the project is not showered at the start. Therefore, usually at this stage only experienced investors enter in small amounts and such a project is not yet interesting for a newcomer with a large deposit.
- Second phase. The project is gaining momentum, experienced investors come in large, but reasonable amounts, there are few newcomers.
- The third stage. The admin pays huge dividends so that the project continues to exist, it needs large injections. Here, newcomers with large contributions come to the rescue, which allow the hype to live on. Experienced investors gradually come out and take profits, because they understand that the project is already too old. And everything rests on beginners with dollars in their eyes.
As I said, this state of affairs suits all players quite well. Therefore, few will tell you that it is too late to enter the project. Firstly, they are all interested in the project living as long as possible, therefore they understand that it needs large financial injections. Secondly, public statements of this kind can harm the project, cause panic and lower the percentage of reinvests, so such a subjective opinion expressed to a large audience can substitute current investors.
Log in on time
Everyone talks about this strategy, it is considered the most correct, but it’s very difficult to determine the moment when it becomes clear that the admin is not a scam, but at the same time there is the potential for at least one more round.
To determine this moment, you need to closely monitor the project. Here are the main things you should pay attention to:
- Is the project in the partisans?
- What venues is it on?
- Does he buy monitors and how smoothly?
- What is the approximate number and size of listings?
- What payment systems are available and is it planned to increase their number?
- What languages is the site translated into and will there be new language versions?
- Are there any limits on the amount and number of deposits?
- What has already been implemented and what are your plans for the future?
- What amounts were invested at the start and did not throw the project? Etc.
By answering these questions, you can understand at what stage the hype is. It is not always possible to calculate the scam in this way, but you can estimate the growth potential more or less accurately.
Login at start
Many investors prefer to enter new projects in small amounts, using the principle of risk diversification. If there is an insider or serious preparation is noticeable, then you can enter in larger amounts.
Actually this question interested me the most. If you go into all the more or less noticeable and promising newcomers, then what profitability can you expect? Is it possible with such a strategy to remain in breakeven or make a profit? You can find the answers to these questions below.
In general, I wrote this section with strategies in order to try to convince you to observe the projects. You must clearly understand at what stage hype is and whether it has growth potential. Your entry decision must be weighed.
To do this, it is advisable to track beginners, it may even be to maintain a table with data on the dynamics of the development of a project.
Even if you intend to use the principle of risk diversification, but at the same time you go to some platform (maybe even a very authoritative one), choose the recommended hypes and enter them, then if you have not analyzed at what stages of development the selected projects are, then Your risks of failure will be very great.
I have long thought to analyze all highly profitable investment projects that have opened over a certain period. After analyzing previous periods, you can determine the patterns that are likely to work in future periods.
Of course, one could use complex mathematical models to predict future periods, as large companies do, but, firstly, the sample was not so large, and secondly, the hype industry is constantly changing.
How did I choose projects
Every day, several hypes open and the same number of closes. There was simply no point in analyzing them all. Therefore, I selected 8 sites that filter slag and select only more or less promising projects.
The name of these sites I will not open. I won’t even say what kind of sites these are: blogs, video blogs, monitors, newsletters, social groups. Networks, etc. I can only say that they have their own audience and enjoy credibility.
In order for the project to fall into my sample, it had to be published at least on one of these sites.
How was the information collected
I collected the following information:
- When the project was opened,
- When the project was published at each site,
- When the scam happened
- How much you could earn for 1,2,3 and more circles on each site, making a contribution on the day the project was added.
What could be found out thanks to these data
- Which site is the most effective?
In general, it is not so interesting to find out which site is more effective, how what method of selecting projects in your portfolio is more effective. You can notice that each site uses its own strategy for selecting projects, so I managed to find out which of the strategies showed its best performance in the analyzed period.
- Are all projects worth reinvesting?
It was possible to calculate what percentage of projects goes 1, 2, 3 or more circles.
- Which site is the first to publish the project?
You can determine who first places the project, who the second, etc. After analyzing these data, we can draw conclusions about the profitability of the project, depending on the addition of sites.
Results and conclusions
First round results.
For simplicity of analysis, the “hit & run” strategy was adopted. That is, it was considered the amount of interest that the investor could earn in one round, entering all projects on the day of publication on the site.
As a result, the results were from + 162% to -1203%. Classic sites showed a result above + 100%, the control site showed -290%. Moreover, the result of all new projects was -405%.
This begs several interesting conclusions
- Entrance to projects published on quality sites will allow you to go to zero even using the hitran strategy if you make a contribution on the day of publication. And if you take into account insurance and refbacks, you can even get a small profit.
- If you enter into all new projects and trick, then you will not be able to get significant profits. To get increased profit, you need to either independently screen out projects, or go into the second, third and subsequent circles.
Those sites that painstakingly approach the selection of projects bring higher profitability for the first round. Their results are + 100% and + 162%. At the same time, 76% and 72% of published projects successfully pass the first round. In addition, 53% and 84% of those who successfully completed the first round pass the second.
But there are relatively few such projects. For example, classic sites publish 4 times fewer projects than a control site.
If you do not chase high profitability and look closely at effective sites that carefully select projects, then in the end you can get higher profits. At the same time, you can not analyze projects at all, but simply trust the choice of site. The main thing is not to hesitate and enter as early as possible.
All new projects
If investors invested in all projects that appeared on at least one of the analyzed sites, the first-round profitability would be -405%. At the same time, 62% of projects would have successfully completed the first round.
Of the 8 sites, only 3 have better results. And such a yield is similar to the control platform. For comparison, the worst sites showed a result of -899% and -1203%.
In most cases, the selection of experts was inferior in profitability to the strategy of entering all new projects. That is, it is more profitable for an investor to enter projects after publication on one of the sites than to trust the opinion of inefficient sites that have shown poor results.
Reinvest and the second round
I will give reinvestment statistics for each group (percentages are indicated from the total number of projects):
- Classic playgrounds. 74% of projects successfully pass the first round, the second round passes 51%, the third round passes 31%, the fourth 14%.
- All new projects. 62% of projects successfully pass the first round, the second round passes 33%, the third round passes 23%, the fourth 2.5%.
- Control platform. 62% of projects successfully pass the first round, the second round passes 38%, the third round passes 27%, the fourth 1.5%.
If you have completed the first round in the project, then entering the second circle is not a prerequisite. On average, after the first round, you can reinvest in 52-68% of projects, that is, approximately every second or two out of three.
If you have successfully completed the second round, then it is advisable to enter the third in 62-70% of cases. That is, in about 2 cases out of 3.
As you can see, with each round the percentage of closed projects is about the same, even slightly decreasing.
What are the results of the most popular projects
I analyzed the profitability of projects depending on the number of sites to which it was added. The results become better than the results of a beginner only after the project has been added to 4 or more sites. And after the fifth platform, it turns out even a plus, but still lower than on classical sites.
Popular projects that are already posted almost everywhere (on 5 or more sites) show better results in the first round than newcomers. But the downside here is that there are very few of them (even fewer than on classical sites) and they go through the second round very poorly.
Reinvest on classic sites
On classic sites, the first-round lows are lower than the first two laps. On other sites it is higher.
This means that if you immediately plan to go through 2 circles in all projects selected by the classical sites, then your potential profitability will be higher than if you decided to go through only one circle and exit. At the same time, you can reinvest on almost all projects that have passed the first round, discarding only the most unpromising ones.
At other sites, it is necessary to more strictly select projects for reinvestment.
Reinvest in fasts
Almost all the fasts (except one) with 3-5 days laps, which I included in the sample, went through at least 2 laps. Circle 3 has already shown weaker results.
In fasts, you can safely pass 2 circles, entering the 3 circle should already be well weighed, and 4 should be a big question.
Almost all the hourly hours that I examined worked poorly and did not allow investors to break even.It is better not to go into projects with hourly accrual of profits.
Well, now, knowing the statistics of previous months, you can develop your own strategy for investing in high-yield projects. But in the end, I decided to convey to you another important, in my opinion, thought.
You need to understand that the main players: admin, referrals and experienced investors – are primarily interested in making the project work as long as possible. It is not so important for them that personally you or any investor Vasya make a profit. And it is important that the first investors go through as many circles as possible.
Therefore, no one will tell you when it is better to enter the project and when to leave it. And no one will dissuade you from entering the later stages of the hype. As the saying goes: ‘The salvation of drowning people is the work of the drowning themselves.’
Therefore, each investor should set a priority for himself – to learn how to determine when to enter and when to exit.
To do this, you need to watch projects from the very start. It is better if you immediately register in a hype and keep track of all its innovations and development dynamics.